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© 2004-07 Business Cycle Investor - Research, Forecast, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Corporate Profits, Asset Allocation, ETF, Index Funds, Stock Market Timing

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Asset Allocation  |  Research  |  US Index Funds  |  Stock Market Timing  |  ETF |  Dow Jones DJIA  |  S&P 500

Business Cycle Investor

USA Corporate Profits & Dow Jones Forecast

The Business Cycle Investor provides quarterly forecast of the U.S.A. Corporate Profits major turning points that are strongly correlated with the performance of the U.S. stock market indexes: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P500.

Subscriptions to the Forecast are offered to a limited number of professional investors including leading Investment Banks, Funds of Funds, Institutional Investors, Innovative Fund Managers, Absolute Return / Hedge Funds, Private Equity and Entrepreneurs. The research is used for Proprietary Trading (Directional & Pair Trading Strategy), Global Asset Allocation, USA market index timing and leveraged positions decision support. Details about the specific investment strategies are available on request.

The methodology is based on a new proprietary business cycles research applied to a long range timing of the DJIA index.  The investment model signals in advance the major (not all) most lucrative periods of the broad US stock market that are driven by macroeconomic fundamentals.

An average "In the market Period" from a buy to sell signal was 15 months long and achieved 27% ungeared profit excluding dividends, taxes and transaction costs:

Similar performance would be achieved by investing in S&P500 index. The returns could be significantly enhanced through financial leverage and use of derivatives.

The methodology was validated over 55 years and the forecast published since 2004. An independent organization audits the performance since June 2005.

The recommendations are made public on this website after 12 months.

D E T A I L S

Performance
is  independently verified by
TimerTrac.com
since June 2005

We are in the news:

ETF Investor
Stock market timing with ETFs

Seeking Alpha writer

Stocks & Commodities Magazine  Traders.com

Information Sources:

Portfolio asset allocation with ETFs - business cycles stock market timing v
stock picking

ETF exchange traded funds advantage

US business cycles drive global equities asset allocation strategy

investment newsletters directory

Check ETF stock prices:

DIA price & chart

SPY price & chart

In Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Profit % 47.6% 8.3% 35.0% 24.8% 20.8% 29.6% 27.0% 7.6% 29.2% 39.1%

C H A R T S

H O W ?

In Period 11 12 13 14           AVG
Profit %

  51.9%

26.4%

29.6%

 1.1%

                                27.0%
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US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

National Bureau of Economic Research Indicators

United States Department of the Treasury

Business Cycles Dating Committee

LITERATURE ON: Business Cycles, Monetary Policy, Asset Prices - Theories, Models, Analysis, Research, Forecast

Business Cycles Theories - overview

 

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